Tontine เหมาะสมกับผู้สูงอายุไทยหรือไม่


รศ.ดร.สันติ ถิรพัฒน์


วารวารบริหารธุรกิจ นิด้า


Tontine has recently been considered as a financial instrument that alleviates the elderly’s longevity risks. The study compares the characteristics of tontine with the available products such as annuities and lottery linked savings accounts. Using the simulation of the hypothetical investment of an elderly aged 60, it is found that the average present value of the payoff from tontine increases as the number of investors in the investment pool increases; and levels off after the number of investors reach 100 investors. The payoff is not normally distributed with high positive skewness and fat tail. The natural tontine and annuity exhibit the same payoff characteristics as expected. The flat tontine, however, yields lower average present value of the payoff but higher positive skewness. This characteristic is suitable for the risk seeking investors. Further analysis shows that the flat tontine with the return of 3% yields the same average present value of the payoff to the comparable Government Saving Bank’s lottery linked savings. But the tontine payoff has greater volatility and right skewness. The lottery linked savings is more appropriate for risk averse elderly who have a strong bequest motive. The lottery linked savings also provides liquidity since the elderly can redeem the principal, while the tontine is irrevocable. In conclusion, the tontine can serve as a savings instrument for those who prefer a high risk alternative. The Thai government should encourage using various financial instruments to cope with the aging society to lessen their future fiscal burden. Although this study is limited to the standard type of tontine, it can be structured in the context of Thai elderly. This should be left for further study.

(2565). Tontine เหมาะสมกับผู้สูงอายุไทยหรือไม่. วารวารบริหารธุรกิจ นิด้า, 17(1), 51-70.