Factors Influencing changes in Marriage and Low-Fertility: Evidence from Thailand and Vietnam


ผศ.ดร.ทัศนีย์ สติมานนท์, นายมณเฑียร สติมานนท์


Singapore Economic Review Conference 2019


The long-term trend towards less marriage and low-fertility of Southeast Asia countries
have continued since the beginning of the twenty-first century. This trend has been accelerated
in Thailand since it has entered the aging society since 2005. Also, Vietnam has also
encountered a similar trend; however, its total fertility rate has not been significantly decreasing
since 2005. This paper examines the differences in the socioeconomic factors that affect Thai
and Vietnam women’s decision on marrying and having more children by using micro-level
data from Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). The paper adopts the new method of
regression models that are suitable for analyzing correlated count outcomes. The models allow
the specification of two correlated count outcomes with either two outcome-specific covariate
lists or one common covariate list. This study compares standard method of regression, Poisson
regression count model, and a copula function approach in the general case or using specific
parameterizations proposed by Marshall and Olkin (1985) and generalized by Xu and Hardin
(2016). The paper also attempts to propose effective pro-birth policies based on heterogeneous
differences between two countries. The results from estimation show that socioeconomic
factors such as the age of mother, the age of partner, number of household members, and
religion are significantly associated with a number of children. In addition, the use of bivariate
count outcome model helps in postulating the strong relationship between singlehood and
education composition in determining the low-fertility rate.

Factors Influencing changes in Marriage and Low-Fertility: Evidence from Thailand and Vietnam. Mandarin Orchard Singapore (Conference Venue), Singapore, Singapore Economic Review Conference 2019 (—).